Premier League betting: A review of pre-season tips - Liverpool, Leeds Utd and more
We’ve used the international break to take stock of the Premier League standings and assess which pre-season predictions were on the money, and which have aged like milk left out in the sun.
It turns out we may have underestimated Pep Guardiola’s ability to reinvent the wheel, while Arne Slot’s Liverpool have spent the opening third of the season slipping into punchline territory.
Sports News Blitz’s betting guru George Dempsey reviews our pre-season bets with a look at the good, the bad, and a few new suggestions for the months ahead.
Can Liverpool still win the title?
No. Asked and answered. Not sure what else there is to say. The Reds are eighth through 11 games, conceding goals for fun, and the proud losers of five of their last six Premier League matches.
Arsenal need to hold off Man City in title race
It wasn’t that I didn’t think Arsenal could win the title. I just felt that Liverpool were already better and recruited exceedingly well in attack.
We touched on the fact that losing Trent Alexander-Arnold could prove to be a disadvantage, but nobody foresaw the collapse in balance that followed.
On the other hand, the Gunners' defence is stingier than a student loan budget in December.
It wasn’t all bad, though, as we opted to throw Chelsea in the mix as an each-way selection at 9/1. They won’t win the league, but that bet may pay out.
It’s also worth accepting that Man City have done a better job of turning the corner sharply than anticipated.
Odds of +225 are well worth considering. We’ve seen Arsenal lead the way and let it slip before, so Mikel Arteta’s group still have plenty to prove.
Suggested bet: Back Man City at +225 (3.25). Cheer Chelsea on to second. Sorry about Liverpool.
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Top-six contenders still well placed
I was happy to write Man Utd off in terms of the European places, but the Conference League is a distinct possibility.
United fans might think it’s a harsh statement given they sit one point behind fourth-placed Sunderland.
My whole thing is that Ruben Amorim’s rebuild is going to take two full seasons. They’ve bought the attack this season, and that’s why they sit seventh.
They’ve clearly upgraded between the sticks, and Casemiro has rediscovered his lungs, but the defence is still shit.
Spending £100m on good defenders next season propels them back into the top four, but until then, just look forward to Prague on a Thursday.
We also wrote Newcastle off as a European contender without Alexander Isak. There’s no striking depth behind Nick Woltemade. The overall lack of depth and flat away performances are also concerning.
We did, however, suggest backing Villa to finish in the top five, threw Tottenham out there as a volatile side with top-six upside, and advised backing Everton for a top-half finish.
Unai Emery’s side made a slow start, yet they’re right in the mix and in fantastic form.
There’s no chance we’re having the bookmakers’ suggestion of Brighton and Bournemouth being more likely to crash the top five. They’re fantastic to watch, but they’re begging to be scored against.
Suggested bet: Villa to finish top five has drifted to +500 (6.00). Bet that if you haven’t already.
Everton can absolutely still crash the top 10, but it will take two from Brighton, Crystal Palace and Sunderland to drop off.
There’s no point going back in on that bet, but I am willing to wager that the Black Cats will hit a wall soon. They’re absolutely safe, but they won’t finish top 10.
Suggested bet: Sunderland not to finish in the top half at -150 (1.50)
Will Wolves finish above Burnley?
Just hear me out.
I said Burnley would finish bottom of the Premier League, and I’ve seen plenty of evidence that they are really that bad.
They’ve created very little in the way of high-quality chances, while their defence is utterly porous in the same category.
The table is not a fair reflection of what they’ve produced so far, with their three wins coming against two promoted teams and Wolves.
Wanderers are absolutely hopeless and onto their third manager, but I don’t think they’re going to have to do much to finish ahead of the Clarets.
Both are still very much going down in the bottom two in my opinion.
We backed Scott Parker’s side to finish rock bottom at +155. That’s naturally drifted - but not as much as you expect - to +275.
They’re on course to concede 80+ goals, and the rate at which they’re scoring is going to slow down soon.
Wolves go to Turf Moor on the final day, but they’ll already be above the Clarets by then.
We’ve already bagged a winner here, though, as Rob Edwards’ side are going down at +310 (4.10). We also backed Brentford at the same price.
West Ham might be seen as a surprise inclusion, but I called that over on SNB’s YouTube channel.
Leeds are doing exactly what I expected them to do, which is match most teams at home, while suffering from Daniel Farke’s deficiencies at this level, highlighted away from Elland Road.
They’re still a major candidate for the drop. Given their next five fixtures, I’d be looking at Farke as the next manager to be sacked at +130.
I’d also be willing to bet Marco Silva goes around the same time and jumps ship to Leeds.
Suggested bets: Throw Leeds at +160 (2.6) or West Ham at +120 (2.2) into the mix.
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