Ashes analysis: Series score prediction and the main men for Australia and England
The Ashes is finally here - and we cannot wait to watch that first ball of what should be a pulsating series in the land Down Under.
All the talk is that Ben Stokes’ England have an excellent chance to win the Ashes on Australian soil - but talk is cheap, and we will know by the time we wake up on Friday morning what reality looks like.
Here, Sports News Blitz’s cricket writer Jameel Mulla assesses the series ahead.
Ashes 2025/26: A new dawn Down Under
A blockbuster Australian summer
November 21 has arrived and the cricketing badgers are all geared up for the 2025/26 Ashes, with England and Australia all set to fight for the little urn across five Tests.
Kicking off at Optus Stadium (Nov 21–25), followed by a rare pink-ball day-night Test at The Gabba (Dec 4-8), then off to the Adelaide Oval for the third (Dec 17–21), the traditional Boxing Day clash at the MCG (Dec 26-30), and wrapping up with the New Year’s Test at the SCG (Jan 4–8).
Australia under pressure before a ball is bowled
Australia, the home side, enter the series under some strain with injuries.
Captain Pat Cummins is sidelined with a back stress injury, Josh Hazlewood has a sore hamstring and Sean Abbott is also ruled out.
The first Test at Optus looks to be a tough start for the home side.
Beyond the physical toll, there’s growing talk amongst avid fans and pundits on the squad’s ageing core.
Veterans like Usman Khawaja (38), Nathan Lyon (37), Mitchell Starc (35), Josh Hazlewood (34) and Steve Smith (36) highlight concerns over a lack of younger blood.
While former captain Steve Waugh has publicly called for a generational shake-up, the Australian selectors, led by former Test batter George Bailey, insist experience remains their guiding principle.
Bazball rolls out in Australia
On the other side, England continue with their Bazball mindset under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum, aiming to play aggressively, dominate with pace, and finally turn the tide.
The pressure is huge with the touring side going in with injury-prone duo Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, with the pair just playing eight Tests (Wood six and Archer two) between them since 2024.
On England’s last Ashes tour of Australia (2021–22), they were routed 4–0, and now, with an aging Australian side and injury concerns mounting, this might be their best shot yet of winning the urn Down Under.
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Why England can win 3–2
Series predictions have been flying across social media all week but I feel England will pull off a dramatic 3–2 series victory over Australia.
Several respected voices back that view.
Former seamer Chris Woakes believes England “will win - they’ve got the tools and the skills - the squad looks as good as it has for a long time.”
To caveat that thought, former Australian spinner Steve O’Keefe, who boldly goes against his side, stated: “England 3-2 - they’ve got some great quicks - I just think that they are ready - they used to bring over some players - you never had that feeling they were ever close.”
Behind this optimism there is a sense that England’s Bazball philosophy under Stokes and coach McCullum will prove decisive.
McCullum himself has argued that England can match Australia “man for man,” stressing that composure under pressure and unity will be critical.
Importance of the First Test
Key to my prediction is the opening Test in Perth. If England can place Australia on the back foot early with a win and force players like Cummins and Hazelwood to come into the second Test match not quite match fit, the touring party could set themselves up for a historic series victory.
Former England bowler Stuart Broad has cautioned that the series could hinge on the first two Tests also.
“If England don’t get anything out of the first two - then that’s a major problem,” he warned, suggesting a fast start could swing momentum their way.
There’s also a growing narrative around Australian vulnerability in the batting department.
Broad has gone as far as calling this “their weakest team since 2010,” citing cracks in both their departments.
The statement may just be further mind games from the former quick but it has to be said that Australia do look slightly thin going into this series.
With England’s pace battery including Wood, Archer and Gus Atkinson primed to exploit those flaws, and their aggressive mindset fully aligned, a 3–2 Ashes triumph feels not just possible, but arguably England’s most realistic path to finally reclaiming the urn Down Under.
England’s trump card: Harry Brook
Harry Brook is very much my pick to be England’s standout player in this Ashes series.
There’s plenty of evidence to back that up.
After 30 Test matches, he’s averaging a staggering 57.55 with a strike rate of 87.52.
What’s even more striking is his record away from home. Seven of his 10 Test centuries have come overseas, suggesting he has the temperament and skill to thrive in foreign conditions.
Just the formula England need Down Under.
Pundits have been almost unanimous in their praise also. Legendary fast bowler James Anderson went as far as saying Brook “has everything”.
He feels the Yorkshireman has the combination of the technical solidity of Joe Root with the attacking flair of Kevin Pietersen and that he could eventually overtake them in England’s all-time run charts.
Meanwhile, Alastair Cook has called him “extraordinary,” noting that Brook seems to “settle straight away” at the crease and adapt to match situations with startling ease.
Australia’s main man: Pat Cummins
Pat Cummins remains undeniably Australia’s key to success for the 2025/26 Ashes.
Even though he won’t feature in Perth, he is a fast-bowling force and captain whose impact is felt in every facet of the game.
With 300+ Test wickets, Cummins has cemented his place among the all-time greats.
He boasts a career Test bowling average around 22 and a strike rate of approximately 45, making him one of the most lethal bowlers in modern cricket.
As for accolades, in the 2025 World Test Championship final at Lord’s, he tore through South Africa’s line-up with a devastating 6-for-28.
It was a spell that not only blew the match open but also saw him become the fastest Australian to 300 Test wickets in terms of balls bowled.
The Sydney-born pacer remains Australia’s go-to even in clutch moments.
His coach, Andrew McDonald, has backed him to play “a big part” in the upcoming Ashes, despite all the talks around injury.
Off the field, Cummins is lauded for his evolved leadership but always demanding stance, especially as Australia’s squad enters a transitional, ageing phase.
In short, Cummins’ blend of elite bowling, captaincy nous and match-winning temperament makes him Australia’s main man and potentially their decisive weapon in what could be a closely-fought Ashes.
A series that will shape the future
With all ready for Friday’s 2:30am (UK time) start in Perth, a new style of Test cricket will unfold across the next six weeks.
It will include flair, pace and of course some on field tension.
But what is for certain is that this series will not disappoint and may be a crucial one for McCullum and his England side as they roll out a new style of play Down Under.
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