This NFL season feels wildly unpredictable: How Super Bowl markets moved

Back in early September, many of us would have been poring over the NFL futures markets, looking at where sportsbooks had positioned each team before the season began.

While not every sportsbook agreed on the betting favorite, it was abundantly clear that four teams – the Eagles, Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs – were the four standout contenders for the Super Bowl.

They were clustered together at the top of the betting markets, and while others, such as the Packers, Lions, and Commanders, were respected, those four were placed out on their own in betting terms. 

Of course, things always change once the season gets underway. Some teams tipped to do well will flop, whereas others predicted to have a poor season will surprise.

Yet, this season has felt, at least at times, more unpredictable than others: Few would have expected the Patriots to become the first team to reach 10 wins; even fewer would have put the Ravens down to start the season 1-5, although they have steadied the ship since; At the time of writing, the Rams are favorites with DraftKings NFL futures, well ahead of the “Big 4” contenders we mentioned earlier. 

The Colts and Patriots have been big movers 

From a betting perspective, it is interesting to see the big movers up and down the markets.

The Rams, as mentioned, have gone in the right direction, going from odds of +2000 to around +400 today (odds subject to change).

The Colts are also massive movers, going from +10000 in early September to +1000 and right among the contenders thanks to a fantastic campaign thus far. The Patriots have gone from +8000 to +1400 at the time of writing. 

As for teams moving the other direction, the Ravens and Bills have seen fairly significant shifts downwards in the markets.

Both have gone from odds ranging from +700 to +1200 and 1400+ in places. Neither team is considered out of it yet, but the odds have been adjusted accordingly after convincing starts.

The Chiefs have also slid down the odds slightly. Of those top four contenders at the beginning of the season, the reigning champions, the Eagles, have held their position, albeit they have been leapfrogged by the Rams.

Overall, one of the most eye-catching teams to move down the markets dramatically has been the Commanders, a team that has certainly failed to recapture last season’s magic. 

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The Betting market looks wide open

If you are a neutral fan, perhaps one of the most interesting things is the coalescing of teams at the top end of the markets, i.e., the Super Bowl feels truly open.

If we were to pick odds of, say, everyone priced at +1600 or under as having a fair chance (in betting terms) of winning the Super Bowl, then consider that there are around a dozen teams priced at those odds and below.

More importantly, there really isn’t a team that has been so flawlessly good that you get a sense that it is nailed on. 

The openness of the market is both intriguing and can be said to offer betting value.

For example, if you fancy the Bills to finally win the Super Bowl, you can get them at odds now that are almost double what was offered at the start of the season.

Nonetheless, it also feels that conceivably seven or eight teams could go all the way, perhaps even more.

That’s great for neutrals, but it can be a bit of a minefield for NFL betting.

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