NFL betting: Three outsiders still clinging on to faint postseason hopes
As January football approaches, the screw is beginning to tighten on the NFL's playoff picture. With just seven games remaining, there are some surprising names currently leading their respective divisions.
The Denver Broncos' walk-off win against the heavyweight Kansas City Chiefs puts them in pole position to claim a first AFC West title in over a decade.
The New England Patriots continue rolling, with MVP frontrunner Drake Maye continuing to dazzle in helping his side cling to the summit out East.
But while these teams are thriving, several others are clinging on to their faint postseason hopes for dear life.
The bookies don't fancy their chances, but here are three teams that refuse to give up their playoff dream.
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys, forever football’s soap opera, have written yet another twist-laden chapter in 2025.
Flash back to August: Jerry World was buzzing with hyperbole - ambitious talk even though the offseason arms race saw a healthy Micah Parsons traded to terrorize tackles in Breen Bay.
Still, CeeDee Lamb and new addition George Pickens mixed electric promise with proven production, with hopes of AT&T Stadium turning into a fortress.
Fate, infamously unconvinced by preseason paper power, intervened.
A hemorrhaging secondary - deprived of starters Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson - was filleted by opposing QBs.
The offensive line, once the envy of the league, couldn’t protect Dak Prescott from hostile rushers or irate fan columns.
A miserable 27-17 loss at home to an Arizona Cardinals side powered by unheralded backup Jacoby Brissett seemingly ended Dallas' hopes once and for all.
By their halfway mark bye, Dallas had skidded to 3-5-1 - good enough for second in the NFC East, but only because of the miserable form of the Giants and the Commanders.
However, the trade deadline brought the additions of defensive superstars Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, while key pieces of the puzzle, Donovan Wilson, DeMarvion Overshown, and Shavon Revel, all returned to transform the league's worst defence into a powerhouse once more.
Now, if there’s a team built to play with backs to the wall, it’s the one with a star on its helmet.
The turning point? A Monday Night Football blowout in Las Vegas - emotion cascading through the locker room in the wake of Marshawn Kneeland’s tragic passing.
The Cowboys, united and unleashed, pounded the Raiders behind Dak Prescott’s masterclass (268 yards, 4 TDs) and an emboldened defense.
Williams announced his Dallas arrival with two sacks, while CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens torched the Silver and Black and announced to the rest of the league that they remain as destructive as ever.
But heroics alone don’t erase reality. The Eagles’ vice grip on the NFC East stands unfaltering, and just to claim a wild-card slot, Prescott will need to survive a gauntlet of tricky matchups.
As such, the betting sites aren't in their corner just yet. The latest NFL betting odds make Dallas a +850 to reach the postseason, but be warned: the Cowboys remain alive, for now.
Are they alive and well? We're about to find out.
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Houston Texans
There’s an undeniable, gritty poetry in the Houston Texans’ 2025 campaign - a team that careened from division overlord to forgotten underdog in the span of a few bruising weeks.
Coming off consecutive AFC South crowns and with C.J. Stroud installed as the new face of Texas football, expectation hung thick in the fall air.
But adversity, that most faithful of NFL companions, was waiting. Stroud suddenly looked gun-shy behind a porous offensive line.
The Texans started the season 0-3, and alarm bells were ringing. They managed to keep their hopes alive after blowing out the rock bottom Titans and an injury-riddled Ravens.
And it turns out that the confidence those two victories would bring was all the Texans needed to start hitting form.
The last four weeks have seen Houston swing from the gallows to the gates of hope: a 26-point fourth quarter to stun the Jaguars, a walk-off field goal to snatch victory from Tennessee.
Make no mistake - the bookmakers see the glimmer. Houston, sitting at 5-5, is priced at +310 to reach the postseason, and there is still much work to be done.
However, a schedule laced with vulnerable divisional rivals, hard-earned tiebreakers, and - perhaps most crucially - a group that’s hardened by close calls, means that all hope is not yet lost.
Is their nail-biting nature sustainable? The next two weeks will serve as a crucible in answering that question.
If the Texans can keep the defense opportunistic and Mills mistake-free, and if playmakers like Nico Collins continue to answer the bell, Houston could turn this into the AFC’s grittiest Cinderella tale.
For bettors, this is precisely the sort of scenario where sharp money often comes calling.
Miami Dolphins
Few teams in NFL history have swung so violently between hope and heartbreak as the Miami Dolphins.
The season began with all the intoxicating promise South Beach can offer: Tua Tagovailoa hopeful of returning to the form that saw him finish as the 2023 passing yards leader, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle ready to outrun entire secondaries, and Mike McDaniel overseeing an offense built for dynamite.
Instead? By mid-November, Tua’s 13 interceptions led the league - a grim statistic compounded by injuries to key defenders and a special teams unit that seemed allergic to clutch moments.
Add to that a season-ending injury to Hill, which will surely end the Cheetah's career at Hard Rock Stadium, and suddenly, Miami was dead in the water. Or so we thought.
The Dolphins have, improbably, strung together two wins in a bid to reboot their season. Super Bowl favorites Buffalo were shockingly blown apart in week ten as De’Von Achane racked up an eye-watering 174 yards and two scores, and suddenly South Florida remembered what euphoria was.
In week 11: Madrid, overtime, Commanders downed, and a locker room that - though battered - refused to surrender.
The cruel math? Even four straight wins might only nudge their hope to around 6% (per NYT/Athletic models).
But with this offense, what’s possible and what’s plausible don’t always overlap. The margin for error is now negative.
Miami must run the table, hope for widespread chaos atop the AFC wild-card scrum.
Odds of +5500 say their hopes are all but over, but with favorable clashes against the Saints and the Jets following their bye week, we aren't so fast to write them off.
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