2025/26 Premier League European outrights preview and suggested bets: Who will qualify for European football this season?
The Premier League’s top six race always delivers drama, but this season the European chase looks even more unpredictable.
Four Champions League places are up for grabs, fifth gets you into the Europa League, and the Conference League spot goes to the EFL Cup winner. Or, if they’re already in Europe, the next-best league finisher.
We’ve pulled the top eight in the betting, skipped Liverpool’s short price, and binned outsiders like Bournemouth, Everton and beyond.
Let’s see who’s worth backing to be booking a European away day next spring.
Sports News Blitz betting writer George Dempsey is here to run the rule over the top six tussle in the EPL.
Who will qualify for the Champions League this season?
The top four look locked in. Liverpool are title favourites, Arsenal finally have a proper striker, Man City are in transition but still dangerous, and Chelsea have the goals and depth to stay in the top four.
All four were covered in detail in our Premier League outright betting preview 2025/26 (link).
Will Man Utd qualify for Europe this season?
Man Utd are favorites to claim at least a Europa League place if you believe the bookmakers. Because we’ve watched them play, we don’t believe them.
Manchester United are +400 (5.00) for a top-four finish but odds-on at -135 (1.74) for the top six.
That’s the big club betting tax in action. You’d have to be a romantic or a fool to back them at that price.
Yes, the mood has lifted after three shiny new forwards arrived. Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko should improve a side that scored only 44 league goals last season.
But midfield remains thin, with Bruno Fernandes expected to do it all while the once great Casemiro, who couldn’t win a race against his shadow if the sun was in front of him, trundles about the big gap in the middle.
The fixture list hasn’t done them favours. Arsenal at home, trips to Fulham and City, and Chelsea at Old Trafford all come in the first five games.
Ruben Amorim has cleared out the deadwood and has the fans onside. But sentiment doesn’t win points, and with no European distraction this year, there are no excuses.
Trouble is, they arguably need to spend the same amount again on their midfield, defence, a goalkeeper, and overall depth. They’ll compete under Amorim next season.
Verdict: Back anyone else. Maybe Burnley.
Will Newcastle United qualify for Europe this season?
Newcastle are +290 (3.90) for a top-four finish and -115 (1.85) for the top six. That feels short for a side facing the most demanding season they’ve had in years.
Champions League soccer is back, the Carabao Cup needs defending, and their best player is halfway out the door.
Alexander Isak has one foot out the door, and they can’t replace him, no matter how much money they get.
Anthony Elanga is an excellent signing, and Malick Thiaw strengthens the back line, but the squad could still be too light. Aaron Ramsdale is a gamble in goal, and their summer has been more about missed targets than secured ones.
They finished fifth last season without the midweek grind. Add Europe and lose Isak, and it’s hard to see them doing better.
Eddie Howe will get them organised, but there’s only so much coaching can do.
Verdict: If Isak goes, they’ll win nothing and finish seventh at best.
Which team will qualify for the Europa League this season?
When Newcastle and United wobble, the two clubs best placed to pounce are Aston Villa and possibly Tottenham.
Villa have Europa League football to juggle, but continuity under Unai Emery is a big edge.
The squad is settled, Ollie Watkins looks like he may stay, and the addition of Evann Guessand strengthens a forward line that coped even when Watkins missed games last season.
Losing Marco Asensio is a blow, yet the framework is intact. The big European nights could be a springboard rather than a distraction, as Emery knows how to balance a season across multiple fronts.
Tottenham start fresh under Thomas Frank, free of midweek travel but still working through teething problems.
James Maddison’s long-term injury strips away a key creator, and there’s pressure on Mohammed Kudus and Mathys Tel to step up quickly. The latter lacks any composure or confidence.
The squad is stronger defensively, yet Frank needs time to stamp his identity. Villa’s stability makes them the safer top-six bet for now, even if Spurs have the upside to join them.
Suggested bet: Aston Villa: Top five finish at +170 (2.70) with FanDuel
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Who is the dark horse in the 2025/26 Premier League?
Brighton, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest lead the chasing pack, but each comes with baggage. Brighton have lost Joao Pedro, and Palace could yet lose key players.
While Forest have kept Morgan Gibbs-White, they may find Europa League travel takes its toll. All three feel like risky punts.
Bournemouth and Everton are next in the market. Bournemouth’s defense has been dismantled, while Everton still have signings to make.
If Thierno Barry adapts quickly and Jack Grealish rediscovers form, the Toffees could be a top-half surprise. That might be the smarter market to target.
Sure, Man Utd and Spurs will overtake them, but Bournemouth, Brentford, and potentially Crystal Palace may be in worse shape.
Suggested bet: Everton: Top half finish at +185 (2.85)
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