Premier League betting tips: Casemiro to score against Liverpool, Aston Villa to beat Tottenham and more Gameweek 35 betting tips
Ahoy hoi. How was your weekend? Me? I sat in a London pub on Sunday afternoon wearing a vest, shorts, running shoes and a tinfoil cape while accepting pints of Guinness off total strangers. Works every year to be fair.
To business, then. Read on for a breakdown of the best bets from this weekend’s Premier League TV games from Sports News Blitz’s punting laureate - The Bookie Basher - including the rip-snorter between Manchester United and Liverpool on Sunday, May 3.
Leeds United vs Burnley
What about that PSG game on Tuesday, April 28? Total football, total entertainment. A reminder of why football can still be the beautiful game.
Follow that Leeds and Burnley...
Friday under the lights at Elland Road is rarely subtle, but with Burnley down already, this whiffs of a routine home win.
Leeds have averaged 1.29 goals a game in the league this season, which, in a strange twist of fate, is roughly the same number of Black Forest gateaus I ate during a minor electrical outage while living in Headingley in 1997.
Noah Okafor is Leeds’ second top scorer in the Premier League games this season.
He has scored three in his last four as well and has played a leading role in their recent revival, so I am going to take some 15/2 action that he scores first in West Yorkshire.
There is talk that Okafor might miss the game with a calf issue. Ignore this talk. My sources say he will be fit.
If he does miss the game? Permission to come round my house and sit on my daffodils.
Suggested bet: Okafor to score first at 15/2 (bet365)
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Arsenal vs Fulham
Arsenal’s home numbers remain formidable, despite the fact that in recent weeks they’ve not been putting teams to bed with free-scoring, expansive football.
However, their fans won’t mind how they win the league after such a long wait, as long as they f*cking win it.
They’ve shipped just 11 goals in 17 Premier League home games this season and only failed to find the net at the Emirates once.
Are they any better than the ‘anti-football’ team that George Graham assembled all those years ago?
Not for me to say, but the title race could not be closer, and you can get evens on both the Gunners and Man City winning it now if you shop around.
Can Fulham rip up the script here? The stats suggest ‘no dice’ given the fact they’ve won just one of their last 15 games against the Gunners.
"One-nil to the Arsenal" is 13/2 and that feels perfectly acceptable given Arteta’s men are uber solid but lack a consistent attacking threat.
Suggested bet: Arsenal to win 1-0 at 13/2 (bet365)
Manchester United vs Liverpool
Head-to-head data is usually the first thing to chuck in the bin when analysing this fixture from a betting perspective.
When these two meet, the atmosphere crackles with a raw, visceral animosity that even the most sanitised modern arenas cannot dilute.
To understand the hostility and acrimony between Manchester United and Liverpool is to actually gaze into the furnace of English football’s soul.
Since January 17, Manchester United have taken 26 Premier League points.
Only Manchester City (27) have taken more and Liverpool’s away numbers in the league (failed to win 10 of 17 away games this season) suggest the 13/10 about a Man United win here looks tempting.
Casemiro has scored 11 headers in the Premier League, and I’m reliably informed (source - Johnny Fat Pants in the pub on Monday night) that eight have been this season.
Why then is he 12/1 to score a header against the Scousers?
Suggested bet: Casemiro to score a header at 12/1 (bet365)
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Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Aston Villa have scored eight goals in their last two home games, while Spurs claimed their first win of 2026 when they edged past Wolves last weekend.
It’s looking increasingly grim down at the foot of the table, but there is hope for Spurs, as stuttering Villa have won just two of their last seven Premier League games (one draw, four defeats).
Xavi Simons' knee injury has come at the worst possible time for the club, but as Roberto de Zerbi searches for a psychologist to "change the mentality" of his players, the footballers themselves need to show their mettle.
All things considered, I feel the bookies are taking diabolical liberties by pricing Villa - still very much in the hunt for a top five finish given how Chelsea are wobbling - at odds against here and Unai Emery’s men can nudge the Spuds ever closer to what would be an almost unfathomable relegation by winning at Villa Park.
Suggested bet: Aston Villa to win at 6/5 (bet365/ Coral / Ladbrokes)
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