NBA Playoff betting tips: Desperate Denver Nuggets can force Game 7 against youthful Oklahoma City Thunder
With their backs to the wall, the Denver Nuggets return to Ball Arena on Thursday night for Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals, needing a win to extend their season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the series 3-2, riding the confidence of two straight clutch wins, including a fourth-quarter comeback in Game 5 that left Denver reeling.
Now the question is, can the 2023 NBA Champions regroup and force a Game 7 back in OKC? Sports News Blitz’s NBA expert George Dempsey discusses.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets - Thursday, May 15
Game 5 was there for the taking. Denver had control for three quarters, building an eight-point cushion heading into the fourth. But just like that, they crumbled.
Missed rotations, cold shooting, and a lack of composure down the stretch saw their lead evaporate.
Luguentz Dort knocked down a pair of big threes, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s dagger triple with under a minute left sealed it.
What made it more painful was that Nikola Jokic dropped 44 on 68% shooting, along with 15 rebounds.
Jamal Murray added 28 but was ice-cold from deep, shooting just 3-for-13. With the bench providing little support.
Russell Westbrook shot 1-of-7. Michael Porter Jr. was again a non-factor with just two points and continued to be hobbled by a shoulder injury that derailed his shooting.
Denver’s supporting cast went 3-for-18 from three, and that kind of output simply won’t get it done at this level.
Thunder depth shines again
While SGA had his usual 31-point brilliance, it was the balance behind him that stood out.
All four other starters scored in double figures, and Alex Caruso came off the bench to add 13 as he shot 3-of-6 from deep.
Once again, Oklahoma’s second unit outperformed Denver’s, which has been a recurring theme in this series.
But here's the thing: OKC hasn’t put together a full 48-minute performance in Denver.
They’ve gone 1-1 at Ball Arena, keeping themselves in games with grit, defensive pressure, and timely buckets.
All three instances of their offence firing, which saw them score 112, 119, and 149 points, came on their home court.
Totals trending down, tensions rising
The scoring has slowed as the series has progressed. The last three games have all gone under, with both teams dealing with long dry spells. The Game 6 total is now down to 216, six points below the line in Game 3.
Even so, there’s a sense that Denver will come out swinging at home. Despite the trend, the over could still hold value here.
Jokic has found his rhythm in this series, and Murray is due for a bounce-back night from the perimeter. If they can get anything from MPJ or the bench, the Nuggets can push this one past the number.
Championship desperation meets altitude advantage
Denver has been in this position before and survived. Down 2-1 against the Clippers in the first round, they won two straight, including a 19-point blowout in Game 7 on the road.
The backbone of this team - Jokic, Murray, Gordon - knows what it takes.
Another factor is the altitude. Game 6 comes just 48 hours after Game 5, and Oklahoma City, the youngest team in the league, hasn’t been tested like this.
They’ve never faced a Championship-calibre team fighting for its season, let alone in this environment. This is new territory for them.
Denver will be the more desperate team, and if the Thunder ease up even slightly with that 3-2 cushion, the Nuggets are poised to pounce.
Suggested bet: Denver Nuggets +4.5 at 9/10
The Thunder have been excellent all season. But this is a new level of pressure, and it’s different when you’re the team being chased.
Denver is 4-1 against the spread in this series and 7-1-1 ATS since trailing the Clippers in Round 1. The spread has tightened to +4.5, and that feels like value. Jokic is in playoff mode, and if the Nuggets just hit average from deep, this is their game.
Suggested bet: Denver Nuggets to win at 16/10
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