Celtics vs. Knicks: Betting Insights for the Eastern Semifinals Showdown

On Wednesday night at TD Garden in Boston, the Celtics host the New York Knicks for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series.

After dropping Game 1 in overtime, Boston finds itself in a pivotal spot. As the top seed and a team with championship expectations, a home playoff loss sends a clear message: the path forward won’t be easy.

Despite the setback, the Celtics enter Game 2 as 10.5-point favorites - underscoring just how much trust the market still places in their talent and track record.

They’ve won four of their last five against New York, but the Knicks’ Game 1 victory revealed vulnerabilities that hadn’t fully surfaced before.

For bettors, this matchup brings its own high-stakes calculus. With a sizable spread and a total set at 210.5, every possession - and every adjustment - carries weight in both the outcome and the wagering outlook.

Reading Between the Lines

Oddsmakers are clearly leaning on Boston’s full-season dominance. And to be fair, the numbers are compelling. Boston covered the spread in nearly 77% of games as the favorite.

When they’re expected to win, they usually do.

But here’s the catch: when they’re favored by double digits - like they are now - their record against the spread isn’t just mediocre, it’s bad. Just 13–22. That’s a major red flag.

The Knicks aren’t exactly ATS kings either, especially in the underdog role. In fact, when they were getting 10.5 points or more this season, they didn’t cover a single time. Zero-for.

There’s still momentum behind the Knicks +10.5 pick for Game 2 - and it comes down to context. Game 1 didn’t come off as a fluke; it felt more like a blueprint.

Points, Pace, and Predictability

Let’s focus on totals for a second. That 210.5 line might seem conservative - especially when you realize that both teams cleared that mark in the vast majority of their regular season games. Combined, they averaged over 232 points per game.

Even if you lean on defense - New York’s is scrappy, Boston’s is elite - you’d still land around 218.9 based on what they give up to opponents.

So the case for the over isn’t just narrative, it’s statistical.

Still, one stat won’t tell the story here. Game flow matters.

Boston plays slow. Slower than you'd expect for a team with this much offensive firepower.

In fact, they’re 15th out of 16 playoff teams in pace right now. That tempo gives defenses time to settle - and that’s exactly what New York capitalized on in Game 1.

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What Went Wrong in Game 1?

The Celtics launched 60 three-point attempts and hit just 15. That’s a playoff record - for misses. It wasn’t just bad shooting. It was bad strategy. The offense stalled, particularly in the second half, where Boston took a grand total of one two-point shot in the third quarter.

That’s not an attack. That’s a retreat behind the arc.

Tatum and Brown, usually reliable, struggled to convert. Kristaps Porzingis left the game due to illness, throwing off the interior game plan. Al Horford filled in admirably, but it shifted Boston’s balance.

And while the Celtics looked disjointed, the Knicks were sharp. Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby combined for 21 points in the third quarter alone.

They moved the ball, attacked mismatches, and punished Boston for every lazy closeout.

More Than Just a Bad Night?

Game 1 didn’t happen in a vacuum. While the Celtics cruised through much of the regular season, they’ve been spotty lately.

In their last 10 games, they’re 7–3 straight up - but just 4–6 against the spread. And those games averaged only 206.7 total points, well below their season pace.

New York, meanwhile, looks more dialed in than many expected. Over their last 10, they’re 6–4 both straight up and ATS, with game totals averaging 218.6.

They’ve been steadier, cleaner, and - maybe most importantly - confident in the moments that matter, a quality that’s making them an intriguing factor in NBA Finals bets as this series unfolds.

It’s not that the Knicks are suddenly favorites. Far from it. But they aren’t afraid of Boston, and that counts for something in May.

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Home-Court… Disadvantage?

The Celtics were better on the road than at home this season. Their ATS record at TD Garden? 18–23. That flips the whole “protect home floor” narrative on its head.

New York has its own quirks. They tend to cover more often at home (51%) than away (44%), but not by a wide margin. And yes, the Celtics still win at home more often than not - but winning and covering are two different animals.

For bettors, it means one thing: don’t assume a Boston blowout just because they’re at home.

Betting Angles and Real-World Risks

Let’s go back to that spread. Boston has failed to cover in nearly two-thirds of games when favored by 10.5 points or more. That’s not a small sample. It’s a trend. A pattern.

As for the Knicks, they’ve yet to cover in those situations this season - setting up a pivotal clash where one trend is bound to break.

If Boston adjusts - drives more, moves the ball, tightens up late-game decisions - they could absolutely win by 15+. But if they come out shooting 50 more threes without Porzingis inside? They’re leaving the door wide open again.

The over, meanwhile, has more support from the data. Both teams lived above 210.5 for most of the year.

Even Game 1, which felt offensively clunky at times, still finished at 213 (thanks to overtime).

With a little more rhythm, we could see both squads push that number in regulation.

The Real Test for Boston

This moment extends beyond a single game. Boston’s roster, led by Tatum and Brown, is constructed for a championship run - but true contenders adjust when strategies fall short.

Continuing to lean on high-volume perimeter shooting despite inefficiency won’t be enough. Urgency must translate into tactical shifts.

Wednesday night is about more than just evening the series. It’s a test of how the Celtics respond under pressure - whether they can refine their approach to regain control.

Meanwhile, New York enters with momentum and freedom. With confidence on defense and timely contributions on offense, the Knicks have already disrupted expectations.

A second win wouldn’t just boost their chances - it could reshape the entire series narrative.

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