ITV horse racing tips and best bets for Ayr and Newbury on Saturday, April 18
After a brief sailing holiday along the Strait of Hormuz, Sports News Blitz’s racing tipster Jeff Mexico has returned with six barrels of oil and some red-hot selections for Saturday’s ITV racing.
There are five contests from Scottish Grand National Day at Ayr and four from the second day of Newbury’s Spring Trials.
Jeff Mexico’s racing tips
The weather is at that strange point of the year where it can’t decide if it’s going to be nice and warm or just a little bit chilly, which makes it a nightmare deciding on whether you need a coat or not.
What this kind of weather also brings out is that most abhorrent of species – the ‘shorts man’.
This is a man (usually white, middle class, and carrying a rucksack) who puts on a pair of shorts at the start of April and refuses to take them off until late October, whatever the weather.
Howling gail, 10-foot snow drifts, lashing rain – the ‘shorts man’ carries on regardless, gleefully pointing out to anyone he meets that he ‘wears shorts whatever the weather’.
Add this fecker to your list of people who should be avoided.
If you are one of these men, then please choose another sport as racing is not for you. It has enough strange-smelling quirky types already.
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13:10 (Ayr) – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase
Win tip: Trapan Law
Pulled up in this race last year, but that came at the end of a long campaign. Has been specifically freshened for this meeting. Strong traveller who suits a properly run 2m handicap on softish ground at a galloping track like Ayr.
Each-way tip: Classic Maestro
His recent form figures aren’t flashy but include solid efforts in decent company; he has been running better than bare results. Stays strongly at the trip and is proven on softish conditions, so could sneak into the places at a juicy price.
13:25 (Newbury) – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Group 3)
Win tip: Touleen
Won twice over 7f as a juvenile, including at Newbury. Her Rockfel effort (fifth) looks modest on paper, but that was in deeper company and she wasn’t knocked about late. Several rivals are either unproven at 7f or coming off sprint form. Touleen is already a proper specialist at the trip.
Each-way trip: Zaravina
Could easily outrun her price. Only one run (second at Deauville), but it was in a big-field maiden with depth, and she shaped like a filly with plenty more to give. Could easily outrun her price and might appreciate stepping up to 7f.
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13:45 (Ayr) – Cpms Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase
Win tip: Kdeux Saint Fray
This race is over 3m on soft, and he’s one of the few in the field who already shapes like a proper stayer. Still unexposed over fences. In contrast, several rivals near the top of the market look either trip-questionable or already exposed.
Each-way tip: Big John Wayne
Has been improving with racing and arrives in form. Has been crying out for 3m+.
14:00 (Newbury) – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3)
Win tip: Zavateri
Won multiple races including Group-level company, and crucially beat good horses in the National Stakes. Proven at 7f, and in a race where some rivals are hype horses or lightly raced, he brings solid, bankable Group form and scope to improve again.
Each-way tip: Albert Einstein
Aidan O’Brien’s charge with a big reputation, but disappointed on reappearance and still has questions to answer. This could be his chance.
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14:20 (Ayr) – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2)
Win tip: Tellherthename
Still relatively unexposed at this level and travels strongly. Looks like a horse who is still ahead of the handicapper.
Each-way tip: Tutti Quanti
Comes here off a sequence of strong runs and is proven in competitive races.
14:35 (Newbury) – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Group 3)
Main tip: Convergent
Ended last season with back-to-back Group wins over 10-12f, including beating high-class opposition. Still improving at four and proven at the trip. Trainer believes he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.
Each-way tip: Bellum Justum
Multiple strong runs at Newbury, including wins and placed efforts. Stays 1m4f well and we can forgive his last run which was below par.
14:55 (Ayr) – UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Main tip: Azahara Palace
Overpriced and better than her recent finishing positions. Her second run at Carlisle in a big field on soft is a plus. Most of her form is at shorter trips, but her running style suggests she’ll stay further.
Each-way tip: Game Colours
She has been running well in similar races without being overexposed and has already proven she stays well.
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15:10 (Newbury) – OLBG Spring Cup Handicap
Win tip: Back In Black
Looks like a well-handicapped improver rather than a fully exposed one. Only a handful of runs; the handicapper likely hasn’t caught up yet.
Each-way tip: Whip Cracker
Already proven he can handle the pace and chaos of large-field races. His mark has eased slightly, giving him room to outperform market expectations. Doesn’t need to improve massively as a return to his best will put him in the mix.
15:35 (Ayr) – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Win tip: King Of Answers
Finished strongly in a true stamina test at Cheltenham. Not burdened with top weight, which is historically crucial and local trainer Lucinda Russell excels with staying chasers at Ayr.
Each-way tip: Isaac Des Obeaux
Won the Midlands Grand National and has placed in all four runs this season.
