2025/26 NFL outright betting preview: Who will win the Super Bowl?
The NFL circus is almost back in town, and this mug is ready to buy a ticket.
Sports News Blitz is back with its betting predictions for the 2025 NFL season, thanks to betting writer George Dempsey.
Training camps are wrapped, rosters are set, and futures markets are as wide open as Justin Jefferson in single coverage.
The beauty of this league is its volatility. Since 1990, an average of six new playoff teams show up every season, and win totals usually finish about two and a half games off their pre-season lines.
No sport resets itself more violently year to year, which makes the market still feel like one of the few where the good guys can fight the good fight and pinch the pennies from those b***ard bookies.
In a closed-market world where sports teams are just billionaire playthings, the NFL still finds a way to turn every season into a fresh dogfight, though not quite the kind Michael Vick had in mind.
Who will win the Super Bowl in 2026?
Oddsmakers have the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens installed as joint favourites at +700, but what do they know? The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t far behind at +800, while the Buffalo Bills are +750.
Sure, the Eagles deserve top billing after steamrolling the Chiefs in last season’s Super Bowl. They deserved that victory, and George called it all the way. We’re also calling that they will not defend their crown.
The question is whether Jalen Hurts can repeat in a conference that often chews up defending champs (asked and answered), but if we weren’t clear enough... no...they cannot. The NFC East hasn’t had a back-to-back winner in 21 years.
There’s also the Barkley factor. He carried the load for 2,000 rushing yards last year, and while he’s still elite, that sort of output rarely repeats.
Combine that with five defensive starters leaving, and Vic Fangio’s unit looks thinner than the odds suggest.
Baltimore are a puzzle. Lamar Jackson’s regular-season record is elite, and one-two punches don’t come much scarier than he and Derrick Henry.
On the other hand, what’s up with his playoff record?
Regular-season Lamar is a machine with 70 wins and 24 losses. But until he flips the script in January, the Ravens remain a great-on-paper team.
They’ve had deeper rosters than this one and still come up short when it matters.
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Will the Kansas City Chiefs bounce back in 2025?
Kansas City at +800, in our opinion, isn’t exciting. Patrick Mahomes still has the magic, and Andy Reid rarely fails to adjust.
On the other hand, what the Eagles did to them is a brutal thing to recover from. The offensive line looks shaky, and Mahomes is hit too often.
Last year’s 15-2 mark was incredible, but it was rated by FTN as the most “overperforming” season since the merger.
We can assume some regression, and with the division finally looking competitive, you can make an argument for a lack of home-field advantage.
So, we don’t like the defending champions, we’ve rubbished the most obvious challengers...where the hell are we going with this? Who will win the Super Bowl in 2025?
Will an outsider win the Super Bowl in 2026?
It’s extremely unlikely that an outsider will win the Super Bowl, but the Detroit Lions lurk menacingly over the shoulder of the big four at +1100.
It’s hard to ignore a team that banked 15 wins last season, but repeating that is a long shot. They’ve lost both coordinators and All-Pro centre Frank Ragnow, so it’s clear the market is pricing last season.
The Green Bay Packers, the Los Angeles Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers all have their plus points at +2000, but you shouldn’t bet on them.
On the other hand, there may be some interest in the Packers. Jordan Love carried them to 11 wins despite hobbling through half of the season, and their win projection looks to be low. This could be a playoff team.
You also have the Las Vegas Raiders, available at +12500, whom one drunken idiot with more money than sense decided to back to the tune of $25,000 after stumbling out of Fremont Street one night in July.
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Why you should bet on the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl
All of that waffle brings us to the point of this section, which is to advise you to bet on the Buffalo Bills. We took the Bills and the Eagles last year, but the bird is no longer the word. Josh Allen’s time has come.
The Athletic’s betting model gave Buffalo 11.2 projected wins, the highest of any team, and still called it “too low.”
Five straight AFC East titles back up the math, with an average of more than 12 wins across those seasons.
They’ve been punched out by the Chiefs too many times to count, but Allen is fresh off an MVP year, and their schedule is as soft as ever. They’ll face 10 teams that produced a losing record in 2024.
Ten games against opponents who finished with losing records in 2024 isn’t just favourable, it’s the softest draw of any contender.
Buffalo should be able to stockpile wins early, secure home field, and finally flip the script by bringing Kansas City to Orchard Park in January.
Not only is there continuity across the staff and the offence, but the defence has also been reinforced.
Even though the market gives them less respect than last season’s finalist, there’s still a strong case to be made.
Larry Ogunjobi and numerous draft picks give the defensive line a fresh coat of paint, while the loss of Von Miller is covered by Joey Bosa at edge rusher.
In addition to potential breakout players such as Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, other more established names have another year under their belt with Allen pulling their strings.
Suggested bet: Buffalo Bills at +750
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