Weight allowance gives juveniles a generous edge in the Nunthorpe, say Timeform

A two-year-old has not won the Nunthorpe since Kingsgate Native scored in 2007 but juveniles are far from at a disadvantage, according to the ratings experts at Timeform.

Two-year-old colts and geldings receive 22 lb from three-year-olds and 24 lb from four-year-olds and up to account for their lack of physical maturity. However, Timeform believes this weight-for-age allowance is too generous and that a concession of 16 lb would be fairer.

This year's juvenile representatives Lady Iman and Spicy Marg both receive a further 3 lb on account of being fillies.

Timeform Flat editor David Johnson said: "The weight-for-age allowance for juveniles is a largely academic matter, because so rarely do two-year-olds take on their older rivals, but the Nunthorpe is one such opportunity and Timeform's analysis of the data is unequivocal in concluding that the allowance is generous, something that anyone who regularly factors weight for age into timefigures would confirm.

"Whether Lady Iman and Spicy Marg are able to win the Nunthorpe on Friday remains to be seen, but the fact they are juveniles should be seen as a positive to their chance, rather than a negative."

A total of 13 juveniles have contested the Nunthorpe since Kingsgate Native's victory in 2007 and three of them finished placed. Acapulco (2015) and The Platinum Queen (2022) were runner-up, while Radiohead (2009) was third.

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