Tennis betting tips: Can 12/1 Daniil Medvedev atone for Washington woes by lighting up Toronto?

Sports News Blitz’s Bookie Basher is hoping for a profitable return to form in Toronto.

Read on for a breakdown of the best bets from the National Bank Open from SNB’s inimitable punting maverick.

A new week, a new opportunity

The North American hardcourt swing is in full effect, with the National Bank Open providing us with top-tier ATP and WTA action over the next 12 days in Toronto. 

Frenchman Corentin Moutet somehow beat last week’s headline tip Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals of the Mubadala Citi DC Open, despite playing virtually on one leg towards the end of their match (due to severe cramping). 

Medvedev - who weighed in with three double faults in his final service game to basically hand the match to Moutet - then smashed two bottles to the floor in a rage after the quite unbelievable defeat and was booed off court. 

It’s safe to say I was doing more than booing while watching the nonsense unfold on my iPhone in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Honestly, my luck is that bad right now that if I bought a cemetery, people would stop dying. But we roll them bones again this week, and it’s an ATP 1000 event in Canada that can hopefully help us turn a corner.

A wide-open field in Toronto

No Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, so there is some juice in the outright betting market, where Taylor Fritz is a 6/1 event jolly.

Four of the world’s top six are missing in Canada, therefore, Fritz might fancy the job. He has two titles to his name this summer - Eastbourne and Stuttgart - and there is much to like about his aggressive baseline game.

However, he is not the most mobile player on the Tour and lost in Washington to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina last week (he went into that one as a heavy betting jolly). 

And so, despite the booming serve and the fact that he comes alive on this type of terrain, he is a player I am happy to take on.

Other contenders

Alexander Zverev is top seed, but he has never been beyond the quarters here, and his recent form has been all over the place. 

At the time of writing, Holger Rune is in the draw, but he pulled out of Washington with a back problem, having recently appointed fitness trainer Marco Panichi (who made his name working with both Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner).

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Medvedev at 12/1: Risky but tempting

Medvedev is 12/1 to win Toronto, and I am totally torn.

There is a player in there somewhere, but he is dealing with some mental demons right now and towards the end of that Moutet match in Washington looked about as much use as a lifeguard in the Olympic 50 metres freestyle final.

However, he won this event in 2021, and in the same year captured the US Open. He won’t fear anyone in this draw, and temperatures hopefully won’t reach the ridiculous highs that they reached in Washington. 

The Russian uses a flatter trajectory on his groundies, which serves him well on hardcourt, and despite being 6'6", he moves exceptionally well around the court.

Mentally, we are taking a leap of faith, but 12s looks too tempting given how talented he is.

A long shot value

Davidovich Fokina looks interesting at 33/1.

The Spaniard was denied what would have been a maiden ATP Tour title at the weekend in dramatic fashion after Alex de Minaur somehow saved three match points in their Washington final before winning 5-7 6-1 7-6 (3).

Aussie De Minaur was all class afterwards, consoling his dumbfounded opponent and telling Davidovich Fokina during the trophy presentation, "You're way too good to not have one of these; it's coming for sure. You deserved it today, I just got lucky.” 

It was a rough end to a great week for Davidovich Fokina, who beat Fritz and Ben Shelton en route to the final and served great all week.

If he can clear his head and go again, 33/1 looks a tasty each-way punt. 

Suggested Bet #1: Daniil Medvedev to win the National Bank Open at 12/1 (bet365 / betway / Hills)

Suggested Bet #2: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (each-way) to win the National Bank Open at 33/1 (General)

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