NBA Finals 2025 betting tips: Lightning-quick Pacers to silence Thunder in Game 1
The NBA Finals tip off on Thursday night, and few matchups in recent memory have offered such a contrast in styles or such a compelling betting angle.
Indiana’s lightning-fast, high-octane offence meets the lockdown discipline of Oklahoma City’s top-ranked defence in what promises to be a collision of extremes.
While the Thunder enter as the heavy favourites, opening as short as -800 (1/8) to win the series, early movement in the markets suggests that bettors are giving the Pacers a serious look.
Can the Eastern Conference’s surprise package cause a major upset in Game 1 of the NBA Finals? Sports News Blitz’s NBA expert George Dempsey discusses.
Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder - Thursday, June 5
The Game 1 spread sits at OKC -9, but the Pacers have shown all postseason long that they don’t fold when the odds are stacked against them.
After all, this is a team that’s already upset Cleveland and New York, both as underdogs, and arrives here off the back of a dominant Game 6 against the Knicks.
They’ve now won nine straight games following a loss, and their ability to respond under pressure has defined their playoff run.
On the road, they’ve been fearless, winning six straight away games before their Game 5 stumble at MSG.
That resilience is part of why we’re leaning Indiana +9 as our betting angle for Game 1.
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Less rest is good for the Pacers
This is a spot that suits the Pacers. They’re catching OKC cold, with the Thunder having had an extended break after dispatching the Mavericks in five.
That downtime is great for recovery, but not always ideal for rhythm, especially against a team that thrives in chaos.
Indiana’s offence has been the best in the playoffs by effective field goal percentage, with Haliburton orchestrating at full throttle and Pascal Siakam offering a steady scoring punch.
They lead all playoff teams in offensive rating except OKC, and that’s despite facing three elite defences already.
Still, the challenge here is real. The Thunder aren’t just good; they’re historically efficient. They’ve won 68 regular-season games, dropped just three in the playoffs, and become the first team in league history to go 29-1 against the East.
Defensively, they’ve allowed only 104.7 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs and lead all teams in turnover creation. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains unguardable, and the supporting cast, from Chet Holmgren to Jalen Williams, is versatile, unselfish, and relentless.
But Indiana has a way of forcing you into uncomfortable spots. If they can push the pace, hit early shots, and get contributions from their second unit, particularly from T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin, they can hang close enough to cover.
The early odds movement (now OKC -700 (1/7), Pacers +500 (5/1) for the series) reflects a subtle but important shift: Indiana aren’t just here to make up the numbers.
They’ve already defied expectations in two rounds and come into Game 1 with the kind of form and fearlessness that’s tough to bet against.
The Thunder may still prove too much over seven games, but in the opener, with the expectation on the hosts and Indiana playing free, the value lies with the points.
Suggested bet: Indiana Pacers +9
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