League Two play-off semi-final analysis: Predicting who will make it to Wembley
The League Two play-offs are currently underway with the second legs of the semi-finals taking place on Friday, May 15 (kick-off 7.15pm and 8pm).
After Bromley, MK Dons, and Cambridge United received automatic promotion, Salford City, Notts County, Chesterfield and Grimsby Town were left in the fight for the final promotion place.
Salford City, who ended the season in fourth, are in a battle against the league’s seventh place finishers Grimsby Town.
Notts County, fifth, see themselves once again head to head with rivals Chesterfield, who finished sixth, echoing the battle that saw Notts County promoted to League Two from the National League.
Here, Sports News Blitz writer Katie Butler looks into the question - who will make it to the Play-offs final at Wembley?
Notts County lead Chesterfield 1-0
Notts County go into their home game of the League Two play-offs semi-finals one goal up to Chesterfield.
In the first leg of the semi-final, Notts County left the Spireites’ home victorious.
Chesterfield had the chance early in the game to take the lead.
However, despite County’s James Belshaw diving in the opposite direction, Chesterfield’s Lee Bonis missed a penalty in the sixth minute by hitting the post.
Notts County took the lead instead in the 28th minute when Jayden Luker, loaned to the Magpies by Luton Town, scored from Tom Iorpenda.
The second half saw no goals.
The Spireites led in possession, 71% to County’s 29%, but it was not enough for the team to equalise.
The other games this season between Notts County and Chesterfield ended with Chesterfield taking both wins, 2-3 at Meadow Lane and 2-0 at SMH Group Stadium.
But, Notts County have beaten Chesterfield in previous play-offs.
The 2022-23 National League Play-off final at Wembley between Chesterfield and Notts County ended 2-2 (3-4 on penalties), with Notts County coming back twice from being a goal down.
The rivals have shown countless times that games between them are close, so it’s no surprise that either team has the chance to win.
Salford City lead Grimsby Town 2-1
The home side, Salford will start with the advantage.
The game looked promising for Grimsby Town when they scored in the first minute of the game with a brilliant 25-yard goal from Reece Staunton.
Three minutes later, Salford City responded, equalising with a goal from Kallum Cesay.
The Ammies scored again in the 40th minute.
A controversial goal, which the referee was unmoved by, put Salford City into the lead, where they stayed for the rest of the game.
Salford City’s Luke Garbutt’s corner was headed in by Adebola Oluwo.
Grimsby Town Boss Dave Artell was not happy with the goal, telling BBC Radio Humberside: “As soon as [the second goal] went in I said, ‘That’s offside.’”
The second half saw Grimsby with a higher number of shots, eight total and three on target to Salford’s zero, and a higher possession, 58% to 42%.
In the two previous games this season where the Ammies went head to head with the Mariners, Grimsby Town won both, 3-1 at home and 0-2 away.
So, it would be no surprise if Grimsby Town head to Wembley rather than Salford City.
But, with Salford City ending higher in the league table and being one goal up, the play-offs could go in anyone’s favour.
What are the predictions for the finals at Wembley?
Notts County, who ended the season higher in the league than Chesterfield by a single point, should secure the win at home.
The Magpies have shown in the past that they can hold their own against Chesterfield in play-off games.
And, the team ended the season with more wins and more goals scored.
Joining them at Wembley should be Salford City.
They not only finished higher in the league than Grimsby Town but know how to capitalise on a home advantage.
The team have won their last six of seven home games.
Additionally, Salford have a great record against the top teams in League Two, beating Bromley (2-0), MK Dons (1-0) and Notts County (2-1) in their last few home games.
The League Two play-offs final is on Monday, May 25 at Wembley Stadium.
