Horse racing tips and best bets for ITV racing at Haydock, Ascot and Punchestown on November 22

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Written By Jeff Mexico

Having spent an entire week trapped in his loft looking for his big coat, Jeff Mexico clambers down to ground level to impart his horse racing betting wisdom on nine cracking contests served up by Saturday’s ITV racing schedule.

The Sports News Blitz horse racing oracle casts his net over five races from Haydock, including the Grade 1 Betfair Chase, three from Ascot and the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown. 

It’s going to be a busy day, if the weather stops being an arse.

Jeff Mexico’s racing tips

How many times this week has someone told you that they are cold? 

Well, when you spend as much time as I do walking about in just a pair of pants, especially in the freezer aisle at Tesco, then I’m fully aware of how cold it is.

I’d like to take this opportunity to apologise to the good people in the Truro branch of Tesco, especially the ones who caught a glimpse of my gooch when I was leaning into the cabinet to fish out a bag of petit pois (yes, I eat the posh peas). 

By the way, it’s Tesco, not the plural Tescos. It’s only Tescos if you are going to multiple Tesco shops all next to each other.

Anyway, horses don’t like the cold either, technically they are wandering about in the nip too, and are desperate to get back to those big comfy blankets that they get to wear.

So as a lazy man, my concern is doing a load of tips and then the meeting is abandoned or the horse is scratched at the last minute.

We lost a few selections last week because of the nasty wet weather, now the stables are having to deal with snow and ice. National Hunt racing is tough.

It was a mixed bag results wise last weekend, with Issam winning at Wetherby, and Cueros claiming a second. 

At Cheltenham, Be Aware finished in the places, as did my outsider Kap Boy, whose price dropped dramatically in the morning, so hopefully you picked up the price on the Friday I posted the tips.

Ok, enough waffle, to business. 

There’s a couple of bigger prices at the end of the day for those who prefer a bit of a wild swing.

13:15 (Haydock) - The Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Main tip: Andashan

Thumbs up: 

Ran well in his most recent hurdle outing, finishing third in handicap debut at Newbury in November.

Unexposed in handicap company and could improve over longer trip

Freddie Gordon is on board; he has a solid strike rate in conditional / handicap hurdle company.

Thumbs down: 

Lacks experience in a big-field Class 2 race

Concern over the ground, may struggle with pace

May struggle with stamina with step up in trip

Outsider: Cornier

Scored at Nottingham last month

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13:30 (Ascot) - The Ladbrokes 1965 Steeple Chase (Grade 2)

Main tip: Il Est Francais

Thumbs up: 

Good form in top company, including a solid second in last season’s King George VI Chase

Proven stamina for this trip

Has a weight advantage over rivals

Thumbs down:

Inconsistent form

Dangerous rivals in field

Outsider - Gidleigh Park

Lightly raced, open to improvement and has won three of four starts over hurdles

13:50 (Haydock) - The Betfair Exchange Graduation Steeple Chase (Class 2)

Main tip - The Jukebox Man

Thumbs up:

Classy, well-handled and potentially spot-on fitness-wise

Solid form over fences and has won at a decent level

Exciting prospect for trainer Ben Pauling, and this is probably being used as a prep race for bigger contests

Thumbs down:

Coming back from a long absence 

Outsider - Knappers Hill

Fresh after a long layoff, but will lack sharpness. Has the class and staying power to surprise.

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14:10 (Punchestown) - Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Grade One)

Main tip: Lossiemouth

Thumbs up:

Very well proven at the highest level and a multiple Grade 1 winner

Ended last season in strong form and arrives here fresh

Significantly lighter than her rivals

Mullins/Townend combo

Thumbs down:

First race of season could be ring rusty

Four runners, the race will be tactical

Uncertain ground could be an issue

Outsider - Ndaawi

Progressive, talented and potentially undervalued by the market.

14:25 (Haydock) - The Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 1)

Main tip: Ma Shantou

Thumbs up:

Arrives here off the back of convincing win in a three-mile win at Haydock

Stay well, form suggests he can handle the test

Carries less weight compared to some bigger stayers in this field

Thumbs down:

Big field

Ground could be testing

Raised 9lbs

Outsider: Hartington

Improving, staying-capable and potentially underestimated. Won at Carlisle three weeks ago. But step up in trip could be a stretch

14:40 (Ascot) - The Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2)

Main tip: Potters Charm

Thumbs up:

Talented younger hurdler, won 4 of his 7 hurdle runs

Already scored in graded company

Twiston-Davies connections have good form and experience at this level

Carrying less weight than rivals

Thumbs down: 

Fell at Wetherby in last race

Other impressive staying and improving hurdlers in field

Outsider: Celtic Dino

Well-treated and with the trip and ground to suit. Doesn’t lack for stamina and could improve again

15:00 (Haydock) - The Betfair Steeple Chase (Grade 1)

Main tip: Royale Pagaille

Thumbs up:

Loves the mud, proven on testing ground

Very good record at Haydock, has won five in eight

Won this race twice and is going for a hat-trick

Thumbs down:

First race of season, and hasn’t won or placed in last four. Pulled up twice

At 11 years old, he’s a bit long in the tooth

May not be as reliable as in his prime

The threat of Grey Dawning looms large

Outsider: Handstands

Won all three last season, including a G1 at Sandown. Wasn’t at his best on return at Carlisle though finishing second of four.

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15:15 (Ascot) - The Castello Banfi Hurdle Park Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Main tip: Calico

Thumbs up:

Calico won at Cheltenham on last outing

Proven at this distance

Trained by Dan Skelton

Conditions could suit

Thumbs down:

Lot of better rated horses in field

Inconsistent, good form has peaks and troughs

Raised 7lb

Outsider: Sans Bruit

Back-to-back wins at the end of last season, Harry Cobden returns to the saddle

15:35 (Haydock) - The Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 2)

Main tip: Duke of Deception

Thumbs up

Has won over similar long trips and has shown he can handle distance.

Ended last season with two wins

Solid, steady jumper

Well weighted

Thumbs down

Haydock is a testing track

Small rise in weight might be an issue

Outsider: Shomen Uchi

Shorter price than Duke of Deception but less exposed and improving. But that inexperience might be a risk 

Good luck everyone, and remember – never gamble in your pants.

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Jeff Mexico

Jeff Mexico was brought up on the west coast of Cornwall and spent most of his early life on the sea as a fisherman.

A job opportunity took him as far as Somalia, but he soon realised the pirate-life wasn't for him and he became a bag man for various bookies across the south of England.

His years of experience of on-track bookmaking has given him a unique insight into the world of gambling across a multitude of sport including horse racing, greyhounds, football, cricket, golf and much more.

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