Almaqam and Estrange emerge as serious Group 1 players in open middle-distance division
Recent winners Almaqam and Estrange are both credible contenders for Group 1 honours in a wide-open middle-distance division, according to the ratings experts at Timeform.
Almaqam earned a rating of 123 after inflicting a first defeat on Ombudsman, with the pair pulling clear, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on Thursday evening, while Estrange has been rated 116p after posting an impressive four-and-a-quarter-length success in the Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes on her reappearance at Haydock on Saturday.
The 'p' denotes that Estrange is likely to improve further after only four starts, and she doesn't have loads to find on the figures with some of the leading Arc contenders. For context, a rating of 116p places her only 4 lb behind last season's Group 1 Fillies & Mares Stakes winner Kalpana, who is disputing Arc favouritism with a couple of firms.
The general Arc favourite - at a price of 10/1 which underlines the open nature of the division - is Sosie. The Prix Ganay and Prix d'Ispahan winner is rated 123, though he must concede 3 lb to the fillies and mares so effectively comes out with the same chance at the weights as Kalpana.
The highest-rated horses in the middle-distance division are Calandagan (129) and Goliath (128), though they are both geldings and, therefore, ineligible to run in the Arc.
It's very early days in the season so plenty can change between now and the major races in the autumn but, as things stand, White Birch is the highest-rated entire in Britain or Ireland with a rating of 126. He wasn't seen to best effect when fourth behind Los Angeles (125), Anmaat (125) and Kalpana (120) in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time.
Timeform handicapper Rory King said: "The Brigadier Gerard Stakes form is only a little behind what Los Angeles achieved in fending off Anmaat in the Tattersalls Gold Cup a few days earlier, and the older-horse middle-distance division is starting to bubble up quite nicely.
"Almaqam is improving anyway but it's likely that the change to more positive tactics helped him reach a new level of form. This was his first win since landing the Heron Stakes on this card last year, but that doesn't do his overall profile justice and he's a likeable colt who is still on the up and must be a contender for top honours now."
On Estrange, King added: "Estrange had been beaten on very firm ground at Yarmouth last year but has been a ready winner on her other three starts and looked a filly of considerable potential in dismissing another lightly-raced filly whose reappearance defeat of Scenic was boosted shortly after this at York.
"There's better to come, and a campaign avoiding ground much firmer than this through the summer, that could take her all the way to Paris in October, is seemingly in store."
Timeform's highest-rated middle-distance horses in Europe (excluding geldings):
126 White Birch
125 Anmaat
125 Los Angeles
124 Giavellotto
123 Almaqam
123 Sosie
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